Indonesia Trade Impact from Middle East Conflict Remains Limited, Exports at 4.2%

Data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and the Indonesia Eximbank Institute indicate that exports from Indonesia to the Middle East account for roughly 4.2 percent of total national exports. Key export commodities include palm oil (HS 1511), jewelry (HS 7113), and automobiles and other vehicles (HS 8703).

“The worsening conflicts in the Middle East pose a risk of increased volatility in global energy prices and rising costs in international trade logistics,” said Rini Satriani, head of the Indonesia Eximbank Institute, in an official statement released on Saturday, March 21, 2026.

However, the direct impact of the conflict on Indonesia’s trade is expected to remain relatively limited due to the country’s modest trade exposure to the region. Rini noted that Indonesia’s imports from the Middle East account for about 3.9 percent of the national total, mainly consisting of energy commodities, particularly oil. This trade structure indicates that Indonesia’s direct exposure to conflict-related risks is relatively low.

According to the latest data, most of Indonesia’s exports are destined for other regions, including East Asia (36.4 percent), Southeast Asia (20.8 percent), North America (11.5 percent), South Asia (9.6 percent), and Western Europe (5.7 percent).

Rini emphasized that economic conditions in these regions remain crucial to Indonesia’s export performance.

She also stressed that ongoing developments in the Middle East and their implications for global trade continue to be closely monitored, particularly regarding the security of global energy supply routes. The Indonesia Eximbank is paying close attention to key shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global trade route.

The region plays a critical role in the global energy system, accounting for more than 30 percent of global oil production, with around 20 to 30 percent of the world’s oil trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption in this route could quickly affect global energy prices and increase international logistics costs.

Although Indonesia does not directly import most of its oil from the Middle East, the impact could still be felt indirectly through regional trade channels. Around 75 percent of Indonesia’s oil imports come from Singapore and Malaysia, which serve as major oil trading and refining hubs in Asia.

Both countries import crude oil from the Middle East, meaning that any supply disruption in the region could lead to higher energy prices for Indonesia.

The Indonesia Eximbank Institute is also monitoring how changes in global energy supply affect major oil-importing countries such as China, Japan, India, and South Korea. These countries are not only major consumers of Middle Eastern energy but also key markets for Indonesian exports. Rising energy costs may weaken industrial activity in these economies and, in turn, reduce demand for Indonesian export products.

Source : https://en.tempo.co/read/2093920/indonesia-records-4-2-exports-to-middle-east-region