BMKG Forecasts El Niño to Continue Through First Quarter of 2027

Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) says the El Niño weather pattern is expected to persist until at least the first quarter of 2027 and could intensify, increasing the risk of prolonged dry spells and forest fires across the country.

Speaking at a press conference in Jakarta on Thursday, BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani said El Niño is likely to coincide with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) from September to December 2026. This combination typically reduces rainfall across many parts of Indonesia.

Faisal said the climate outlook is consistent with BMKG’s forecast that El Niño will continue into early 2027, bringing drier-than-normal conditions throughout the dry season.

According to BMKG, as of mid-July, 509 Seasonal Zones — representing about 54.5 percent of Indonesia’s total land area — had entered the dry season. These zones include large parts of Java, Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Papua.

The agency’s Climatology Directorate projects that the peak of the 2026 dry season will occur mainly in August and September, with around 437 Seasonal Zones expected to experience a longer-than-normal dry season.

Faisal warned that the prolonged drought would significantly increase the risk of forest and land fires. He added that BMKG had detected approximately 4,900 hotspots nationwide by the end of July.

He said the heightened risk of extreme drought directly increases the likelihood of forest and land fires.

To mitigate the impact, BMKG has intensified weather modification operations while continuing to provide climate analysis and early warning services. The operations are being carried out in disaster-prone areas, including South Sumatra, Central Kalimantan, and Riau, with coordination from command posts in West Java.

Faisal said BMKG is working closely with the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB), the Indonesian Military (TNI), the National Police, the Ministry of Forestry, and the Ministry of Environment to strengthen weather modification efforts and ground firefighting operations, in line with directives from President Prabowo Subianto.

Indonesia is preparing for a more severe dry season this year as the combined effects of a strengthening El Niño and a positive IOD are expected to reduce rainfall, raising concerns over drought, water shortages, and forest and peatland fires that frequently affect parts of Southeast Asia.

Source : https://en.tempo.co/read/2116144/indonesia-forecasts-el-nino-to-last-through-first-quarter-of-2027